Key Market Occasions for the Week of February 16–20, 2026

This week features the FOMC Minutes, a US data deluge (GDP, PCE, housing, industrial production), global PMI flash readings, and key central bank signals (FOMC Minutes, PBoC, Banxico). Multiple holidays thin liquidity early in the week — the US, Canada, China, South Korea, and most of Latin America are closed on Monday. Here’s what to watch.

⚠ Holiday Watch: US closed Monday (Washington’s Birthday). Canada closed Monday (Family Day). China closed Mon–Fri (Chinese New Year). South Korea closed Mon–Wed (Korean New Year). Brazil closed Mon–Tue (Carnival), Wed (Ash Wednesday). Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador closed Mon–Tue (Carnival). Thin liquidity across Asia and LATAM early in the week.

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

1
US GDP + PCE Friday blockbuster: The advance Q4 GDP estimate (consensus +2.8% annualized, down from +4.4%) and December core PCE (consensus 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8%) land simultaneously Friday at 08:30 ET — the combination defines the Fed’s rate path into the March FOMC.

2
Central bank signals — FOMC Minutes, PBoC, and Banxico: Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes reveal the hawkish tilt from the January hold. Thursday’s PBoC Loan Prime Rate decision comes with China still on holiday. Mexico’s Banxico monetary policy minutes (Thursday) provide the latest signal on LATAM’s largest economy easing cycle. Multiple Fed speakers (Bowman, Daly, Bostic, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Logan) throughout the week add further color.

3
Global inflation + PMI sweep: UK CPI (Wed), Japan CPI (Thu night), Canada CPI (Tue), and flash February PMIs across the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan (Thu–Fri) provide a comprehensive read on the global inflation/growth trade-off. Mexico’s Banxico minutes (Thu), Brazil’s IBC-Br (Thu), and Colombia Q4 GDP (Mon) anchor the LATAM macro picture.

Week at a Glance — High-impact events only

Day
Time
Region
Event
Cons.
Prior

Mon
10:00
COLOMBIA
GDP YoY / QoQ (Q4)
3.1% / —
3.6% / 1.2%

Tue
02:00
UK
Employment / Unemployment Rate (Dec)
5.1%
5.1%

Tue
05:00
EU
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
65.2
59.6

Tue
08:30
CANADA
Core CPI Measures (Jan)
2.6%
2.7%

Wed
02:00
UK
CPI YoY (Jan)
3.0%
3.4%

Wed
14:00
US
FOMC Meeting Minutes
—
—

Thu
07:00
BRAZIL
IBC-Br Economic Activity (Dec)
—
+0.70%

Thu
08:30
US
Jobless Claims / Philly Fed (Feb)
229K / 7.8
227K / 12.6

Thu
10:00
MEXICO
Banxico Monetary Policy Minutes
—
—

Thu
18:30
JAPAN
National CPI / Core CPI YoY (Jan)
— / 2.0%
2.1% / 2.4%

Fri
08:30
US
GDP QoQ Annualized (Q4 adv.)
+2.8%
+4.4%

Fri
08:30
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY (Dec)
3.0%
2.8%

Fri
09:45
US
Flash PMIs (Feb) — Mfg / Services
52.1 / 52.8
52.4 / 52.7

Fri
10:00
US
Michigan Sentiment (Feb, final)
57.3
57.3

Week in Context

This is a week of two halves: thin liquidity early (US Presidents’ Day Monday, Chinese New Year closures through Friday, Carnival closures across LATAM) giving way to a data avalanche from Wednesday onward. Canada CPI was rescheduled from Monday to Tuesday (Feb 17) — it is the last inflation read before the March 13 BoC meeting. The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will reveal how firmly the January hawkish hold was supported. Friday is the fulcrum: the advance Q4 GDP print (BEA’s first release) lands alongside December PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Chair Powell has flagged that CPI-based estimates imply core PCE rose to 3.0% YoY. If confirmed, this would represent an acceleration that closes the door on near-term cuts. For LATAM: Colombia Q4 GDP Monday, Brazil’s IBC-Br Thursday, Mexico’s Banxico minutes Thursday, and Mexico retail sales Friday provide a comprehensive regional picture. Flash PMIs Friday across the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan give the first February activity read.

Monday — February 16

US closed (Washington’s Birthday) · Canada closed (Family Day) · China (Chinese New Year) · South Korea (Korean New Year) · Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador (Carnival)

Time
Region
Event
Impact
Cons.
Prior

01:30
INDIA
WPI Inflation YoY (Jan)
MED
1.25%
0.83%

04:00
INDIA
Trade Balance (Jan)
MED
−26.14B
−25.04B

05:00
EU
Eurozone Industrial Production MoM (Dec)
MED
−1.5%
+0.7%

05:00
EU
Eurogroup Meetings
LOW
—
—

06:25
BRAZIL
BCB Focus Market Readout
MED
—
—

08:15
CANADA
Housing Starts (Jan)
LOW
266.0K
282.4K

08:25
US
FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
MED
—
—

08:30
CANADA
Manufacturing Sales MoM (Dec)
LOW
+0.5%
−1.2%

10:00
COLOMBIA
GDP YoY / QoQ (Q4)
HIGH
3.1%
3.6%

10:00
PERU
GDP YoY (Dec) / Unemployment Rate (Jan)
MED
— / —
1.53% / 5.9%

12:40
EU
Buba President Nagel Speaks
MED
—
—

Holiday-Thinned Session: US, Canada, China, South Korea, and most of Latin America are closed. Eurozone Industrial Production (cons. −1.5% MoM, a sharp reversal from +0.7%) anchors European trading. Colombia Q4 GDP (cons. 3.1%, down from 3.6%) and Peru data round out the LATAM picture on a holiday-thinned day. Bowman speaks despite the US holiday.

Tuesday — February 17

China (Chinese New Year) · South Korea (Korean New Year) · Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador (Carnival)

<tr>08:30USNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)MED8.507.70

Time
Region
Event
Impact
Cons.
Prior

02:00
UK
Unemployment Rate (Dec) / Claimant Count (Jan)
HIGH
5.1% / 22.8K
5.1% / 17.9K

02:00
UK
Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec)
HIGH
4.6%
4.7%

02:00
EU
German CPI YoY (Jan, final) / HICP YoY (Jan)
MED
2.1% / 2.1%
2.1% / 2.1%

05:00
EU
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
HIGH
65.2
59.6

05:00
EU
EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
MED
45.2
40.8

04:30
S. AFRICA
Unemployment Rate (Q4)
MED
—
31.90%

08:30
CANADA
CPI YoY (Jan) / CPI MoM (Jan)
HIGH
— / +0.1%
2.4% / −0.2%

08:30
CANADA
Core CPI YoY (Jan) / Trimmed CPI (Jan) / Median CPI (Jan)
HIGH
— / 2.6% / 2.5%
2.8% / 2.7% / 2.5%

10:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)
MED
38
37

10:00
COLOMBIA
Trade Balance (Dec)
MED
—
−1.550B

12:45
US
Fed Vice Chair Barr Speaks
MED
—
—

14:30
US
FOMC Member Daly Speaks
MED
—
—

Multi-Front Tuesday: UK employment data leads off — watch the unemployment rate and wage growth, which the BoE dovish faction has cited as justification for further easing. German ZEW sentiment (cons. 65.2, up from 59.6) tests post-election optimism. Canada’s core CPI measures (Trimmed, Median, Common) are the real focus at 08:30 — the BoC watches these closely for its March 13 decision. Colombia trade data adds LATAM context. Fed Vice Chair Barr and FOMC Member Daly speak in the afternoon, rounding out the central bank commentary.

Wednesday — February 18

China (Chinese New Year) · South Korea (Korean New Year) · Brazil (Ash Wednesday) · Jamaica (Ash Wednesday)

Time
Region
Event
Impact
Cons.
Prior

02:00
UK
CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan)
HIGH
3.0% / 3.1%
3.4% / 3.2%

02:00
UK
PPI Output MoM (Jan) / PPI Input MoM (Jan)
MED
0.2% / 0.4%
0.0% / −0.2%

02:45
EU
French CPI YoY (Jan, final)
MED
0.3%
0.8%

03:00
S. AFRICA
CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan)
MED
— / —
3.6% / 3.3%

08:00
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec) / Core (Dec)
MED
−1.8% / +0.3%
+5.3% / +0.4%

08:30
US
Housing Starts (Dec) / Building Permits (Dec)
MED
1.330M / 1.420M
1.246M / 1.411M

09:15
US
Industrial Production MoM (Jan) / Capacity Util. (Jan)
MED
+0.4% / 76.4%
+0.4% / 76.3%

10:27
ARGENTINA
Budget Balance (Jan)
MED
—
−2,876M

12:00
EU
ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
MED
—
—

13:00
US
20-Year Bond Auction / Bowman Speaks
MED
—
4.846%

14:00
US
FOMC Meeting Minutes
HIGH
—
—

UK CPI + FOMC Minutes — The Twin Pillars: UK CPI consensus at 3.0% YoY (down from 3.4%) would be welcome relief for BoE doves — if it drops below 3%, March rate cut odds could surge. Core CPI at 3.1% (from 3.2%) shows slow progress. South African CPI adds EM inflation context. US durable goods, housing starts, and industrial production provide a real-economy backdrop before the main event: the FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET. The January meeting’s hawkish hold was clear, but the minutes will reveal whether any willingness to cut exists if the labor market softens. Argentina’s January budget balance provides a fiscal check on Milei’s austerity program.

Thursday — February 19

China (Chinese New Year)

Time
Region
Event
Impact
Cons.
Prior

04:00
EU
EZ Current Account (Dec) / ECB Economic Bulletin
MED
9.2B / —
8.6B / —

07:00
BRAZIL
IBC-Br Economic Activity Index (Dec)
HIGH
—
+0.70%

08:20
US
FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
MED
—
—

08:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims
HIGH
229K / —
227K / 1,862K

08:30
US
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)
HIGH
7.8
12.6

08:30
US
Trade Balance (Dec) / Goods Trade Balance
MED
— / −85.20B
−56.80B / −84.72B

09:00
US
FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
MED
—
—

10:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM (Jan)
MED
+2.4%
−9.3%

10:00
EU
Consumer Confidence (Feb, prelim)
MED
−12.0
−12.4

10:00
MEXICO
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
HIGH
—
—

10:30
US
Fed Goolsbee Speaks
MED
—
—

14:00
ARGENTINA
Trade Balance (Jan)
MED
—
—

18:30
JAPAN
National CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan)
HIGH
— / 2.0%
2.1% / 2.4%

19:00
EU
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
MED
—
—

20:00
CHINA
PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Feb)
HIGH
—
3.50%

US Labor + Global Overnight Bonanza: Jobless claims and Philly Fed provide the first post-NFP reads on US labor market health — the Philly Fed’s prices-paid component (prior 46.90) is a leading inflation indicator. Bostic, Kashkari, and Goolsbee all speak, making this the heaviest Fed speaker day. Mexico’s Banxico minutes at 10:00 are crucial for LATAM rates traders after the recent easing cycle. Argentina trade data continues the Milei fiscal monitoring. Brazil’s IBC-Br economic activity index at 07:00 is the BCB’s preferred GDP proxy. Overnight: Japan CPI (core cons. 2.0%, down from 2.4%) is critical for BoJ rate expectations. The PBoC Loan Prime Rate decision rounds out the Asian session.

Friday — February 20

China (Chinese New Year)

Time
Region
Event
Impact
Cons.
Prior

02:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM (Jan)
MED
+0.2%
+0.4%

02:00
EU
German PPI YoY (Jan)
MED
−2.2%
−2.5%

03:15
EU
French Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Services PMI (Feb)
MED
51.0 / 49.1
51.2 / 48.4

03:30
EU
German Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Services PMI (Feb)
HIGH
49.6 / 49.1
49.1 / 52.4

04:00
EU
EZ Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Services PMI (Feb)
HIGH
50.0 / 51.9
49.5 / 51.6

04:30
UK
Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Services PMI (Feb)
HIGH
51.5 / 53.4
51.8 / 54.0

06:30
INDIA
RBI MPC Meeting Minutes
MED
—
—

07:00
MEXICO
Retail Sales YoY (Dec) / MoM (Dec)
MED
— / —
4.4% / 1.0%

08:30
US
GDP QoQ Annualized (Q4 advance)
HIGH
+2.8%
+4.4%

08:30
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY (Dec) / MoM (Dec)
HIGH
3.0% / +0.3%
2.8% / +0.2%

08:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY (Dec) / MoM (Dec)
MED
2.9% / +0.4%
2.8% / +0.2%

08:30
US
Personal Income MoM (Dec) / Personal Spending (Dec)
MED
+0.3% / +0.4%
+0.3% / +0.5%

08:30
CANADA
Retail Sales MoM (Dec) / Core Retail Sales (Dec)
MED
−0.4% / +0.1%
+1.3% / +1.7%

09:45
US
Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Services PMI (Feb)
HIGH
52.1 / 52.8
52.4 / 52.7

09:45
US
FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
MED
—
—

10:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb, final)
MED
57.3
57.3

10:00
US
New Home Sales (Dec)
MED
735K
737K

12:30
BRAZIL
Foreign Exchange Flows
MED
—
−0.294B

13:15
US
Fed Logan Speaks
MED
—
—

The Week’s Climax — GDP + PCE Double Header: Friday is the most data-dense session of the week. European flash PMIs roll from 03:15 ET — German manufacturing (cons. 49.6, from 49.1) tests whether recovery is gaining traction, but German services slipping to 49.1 (from 52.4) would be a warning. UK PMIs at 04:30 show manufacturing at 51.5 and services at 53.4. Mexico retail sales at 07:00 provide consumption data for LATAM’s largest economy. The US 08:30 ET window is the fulcrum: Q4 GDP advance estimate (cons. +2.8% annualized, sharply down from +4.4%) and December core PCE (cons. 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8%) define the Fed’s rate path. If GDP disappoints AND PCE runs hot, that’s the stagflationary combination that closes the door on 2026 cuts. Canadian retail sales add to the BoC picture. US flash PMIs at 09:45 provide the first February activity read. Brazil FX flows at 12:30 round out the LATAM data week.

Bottom Line

This is a week of two halves with repricing risk concentrated in the back end. Monday is a skeleton session with most major markets closed — Canada CPI and Colombia Q4 GDP are the exceptions worth watching. Tuesday’s UK employment data and Canada CPI wake things up. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and UK CPI set the table. Thursday delivers Brazil IBC-Br, Mexico’s Banxico minutes, and a loaded US data slate plus Japan CPI overnight. But Friday is the main event — the GDP + PCE double-header at 08:30 ET carries the highest single-session vol potential of the week. For rates traders: weak GDP + hot PCE = the stagflationary outcome that kills remaining cut expectations. Strong GDP + cool PCE = the soft-landing narrative stays intact and risk rallies. Flash PMIs across all major economies provide the first February activity snapshot. Mexico retail sales and Brazil FX flows round out the LATAM data week. Position for Friday morning repricing, and respect the thin liquidity early in the week.