Argentina Shuts Down as Milei Sits with Trump: General Strike Grounds 255 Flights While Deputies Debate Labor Reform; Peru Swears In 83-Year-Old Leftist Balcázar as Eighth President in a Decade; Venezuela’s Amnesty Vote Returns to Assembly Today
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Argentina is paralyzed today by the broadest general strike of Milei’s presidency. The CGT’s 24-hour stoppage began at midnight with full transport shutdown—no buses, trains, subways, or flights—the first Milei-era strike where aviation unions joined completely. Aerolíneas Argentinas cancelled 255 flights affecting 31,000 passengers, estimating $3 million in losses.
The strike is timed to the Chamber of Deputies’ session on Milei’s labor reform, which begins at 2 PM local time. The government believes it has 129–131 votes but will strip Article 44 on sick leave to secure passage, meaning the bill must return to the Senate. CGT leader Cristian Jerónimo declared: “The economic model has failed. Argentina will come to a complete halt.”
Milei departed last night for Washington to attend the inaugural Board of Peace summit, where member states will announce $5 billion in pledges for Gaza reconstruction. The split-screen—Milei photographed with Trump while Buenos Aires goes dark—defines the day.
Peru’s Congress on Wednesday night elected José María Balcázar, an 83-year-old former judge from the leftist Perú Libre party, as the country’s eighth president in a decade. Balcázar defeated three other candidates after multiple rounds of voting and was immediately sworn in.
His mandate is narrow: steady markets, preserve public order, and oversee credible April 12 elections in 53 days. Analysts at Teneo note it would be extraordinary for yet another president to fall before July. This Congress has now impeached three consecutive presidents.
Venezuela’s National Assembly is scheduled to resume the postponed final vote on the amnesty bill today—deferred from February 12 to resolve the dispute over whether beneficiaries must appear in court. More than 600 political prisoners remain in custody. Outside Zona 7, the hunger strikers have passed one week without food.
On Cuba, two extraordinary revelations emerged Wednesday: Axios reported that Secretary Rubio has been holding secret talks with Raúl Castro’s 41-year-old grandson, bypassing Díaz-Canel entirely. Russia’s Lavrov demanded Washington show “common sense,” while the White House demanded Havana make “dramatic changes very soon.”
Regional Mood
This is a day of simultaneous live events across the hemisphere. Argentina’s strike and vote, Venezuela’s amnesty session, the Board of Peace summit in Washington, and Peru’s new government all converge on a single Thursday. The FOMC minutes released late Wednesday revealed a divided Fed inclined to pause rate cuts. BYMA’s reopening session saw the MERVAL plunge 3.30% as traders priced in the strike. Brazil’s federal police raided properties linked to a data leak targeting Supreme Court justices, adding a new domestic scandal to Brasília’s post-Carnival return.
Risk Snapshot
Country
Key Driver
Risk Level
Argentina
General strike underway: 255 flights cancelled, full transport shutdown; Deputies vote at 2 PM; Milei at Board of Peace; MERVAL −3.30% Wed
CRITICAL
Cuba
Rubio holding secret talks with Raúl Castro’s grandson; White House demands “dramatic changes”; Russia pushes back; Sherritt pauses mining
CRITICAL
Venezuela
Amnesty final vote scheduled today (deferred from Feb 12); hunger strike enters second week; 600+ prisoners remain
HIGH
Peru
Balcázar sworn in as 8th president in a decade; leftist Perú Libre; 53-day caretaker; April 12 election
HIGH
Brazil
Federal police raid over Supreme Court data leak; post-Carnival political restart; BCB rate decision March 17–18
WATCH
Argentina
General Strike Shuts the Country Down as Deputies Debate Labor Reform and Milei Meets Trump in Washington
What Happened
—Strike Underway: The CGT’s 24-hour general strike—the fourth of Milei’s presidency and by far the broadest—began at midnight. All public transport is paralyzed: buses via UTA, all seven commuter rail lines (Roca, Sarmiento, Mitre, San Martín, Belgrano Sur, Belgrano Norte, Urquiza), the Buenos Aires subway, and aviation. Aerolíneas Argentinas cancelled 255 flights (219 domestic, 32 regional, 4 international), affecting over 31,000 passengers and costing an estimated $3 million; the airline announced it will deduct pay from striking employees. Schools are closed, hospitals on minimum staffing, and banks shut. The CGT chose not to call a march on Congress—pure economic shutdown. The previous strike in April 2025 saw uneven transport participation; today’s full aviation and rail shutdown marks a significant escalation.
—Deputies Vote Today: The Chamber session begins at 2 PM after Wednesday’s committee markup issued a draft opinion. The government expects 129–131 votes but will strip Article 44—which would have halved sick-leave pay and reduced coverage from twelve to six months—to secure passage. This means the bill returns to the Senate before the February 28 extraordinary sessions deadline. Key surviving provisions: workday extension to 12 hours, “time bank” for overtime, reduced severance, strike restrictions, and company-level collective bargaining. Union leaders warned they will challenge the law in courts.
—Fate Tyre Closure: Argentina’s main tyre manufacturer Fate announced closure of its Buenos Aires plant Wednesday, cutting roughly 900 jobs, citing a loss of competitiveness from indiscriminate import opening. The CGT claims 300,000 jobs lost and 21,000 companies closed since Milei took office.
—Markets: MERVAL plunged 3.30% to 2,723,175 on Wednesday’s reopening (Wed)—its first session after four Carnival-dark days—as traders priced in the strike. The index opened at Friday’s 2,816,128 close and sold off immediately.
Why It Matters
Passage of labor reform would represent the deepest structural change to Argentine labor law since the 1940s Peronist compact—rewriting the relationship between capital, labor, and the state that has defined Argentine politics for 80 years. Failure would expose the limits of Milei’s post-midterm mandate.
The Article 44 removal preserves the core reforms while requiring a Senate return trip before February 28—tight but achievable.
Milei’s 14th trip to the United States while the country shuts down is a calculated bet: the Board of Peace photo-op positions him as a global statesman, but domestically it reinforces the CGT’s narrative that his priorities lie abroad. The Fate closure crystallizes the opposition’s core argument: liberalization without protection destroys Argentine industry.
Key Watch
Deputies vote outcome and margin. Whether Article 44 is stripped as expected. Strike breadth outside Buenos Aires. Senate return timeline. MERVAL reaction. Court challenges from unions. Board of Peace bilateral announcements.
RISK: CRITICAL
Cuba
Rubio Holds Secret Talks with Raúl Castro’s Grandson as Washington Demands “Dramatic Changes” and Moscow Pushes Back
What Happened
—Secret Rubio-Castro Channel: Axios reported Wednesday that Secretary of State Rubio has been holding undisclosed talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the 41-year-old grandson of Raúl Castro, bypassing President Díaz-Canel entirely. Washington views the younger Castro as representing business-minded Cubans for whom revolutionary communism has failed. Sources described the exchanges as “surprisingly cordial.” The parallels to the Venezuela playbook are explicit: one source said Washington is “looking for the next Delcy in Cuba.” Cuba’s government denied formal talks exist, saying only that “exchanges of messages” have occurred.
—White House Ultimatum: Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that Cuba must make “very dramatic changes very soon,” describing the regime as “collapsing” and “falling apart.” This language sets a timeline where none existed before.
—Russia Pushes Back: Foreign Minister Lavrov, meeting Cuban counterpart Bruno Rodríguez in Moscow, called any naval blockade “unacceptable” and demanded Washington “show common sense.” The Russian ambassador indicated Moscow is reviewing energy assistance but specified no dates or volumes. Rodríguez left the door open for dialogue, saying Cuba “will always be ready for respectful dialogue on equal terms.”
—Crisis on the Ground: Canadian mining company Sherritt International paused nickel and cobalt operations due to the fuel crunch. Guatemala announced it will begin phasing out its three-decade-old Cuban medical mission. CNN reported from Havana that most of the city is in near-total darkness at night. UNESCO called for emergency solidarity, noting over 2,000 schools need repair after Hurricane Melissa.
Why It Matters
The Rubio-Castro grandson channel confirms three things: Washington sees Díaz-Canel as irrelevant, the administration is pursuing a Venezuela-style managed transition rather than invasion, and the Castro family’s military-business conglomerate GAESA is viewed as the institution that would facilitate any deal.
Russia’s leverage is limited—it cannot replace the oil Mexico and Venezuela stopped sending, and vague promises of “reviewing” energy assistance lack urgency. The medical mission phaseout in Guatemala strikes at one of Havana’s last reliable hard-currency earners.
The simultaneous Washington pressure and Moscow pushback create a classic great-power triangle. But Cuba’s population bears the immediate cost in darkness, hunger, and isolation.
Key Watch
Whether Havana acknowledges or denies the Rubio channel. Russia’s follow-through on energy. Aeroflot final Cuba service Feb 24. Disease outbreak indicators. Whether other countries follow Guatemala on medical missions. GAESA internal dynamics.
RISK: CRITICAL
Venezuela
Amnesty Vote Returns to Assembly Today as Hunger Strikers Enter Second Week
What Happened
—Vote Scheduled Today: The National Assembly agreed on February 12 to resume the amnesty debate on February 19 after failing to reach consensus. The sticking point: pro-government lawmaker Iris Varela insists beneficiaries must appear in court and acknowledge their offenses; opposition member Nora Bracho calls the requirement unnecessary and says amnesty should apply automatically. A secondary dispute concerns whether Venezuelans who fled abroad qualify.
—Hunger Strike Passes One Week: The hunger strikers outside Zona 7 have exceeded seven days without food. Foro Penal estimates more than 600 political prisoners remain in custody, despite 444 releases since January 8.
—Transition Dynamics: Acting President Rodríguez told NBC News she is “absolutely” committed to free and fair elections but offered no timeline. Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez said the law’s approval would trigger all remaining prisoner releases. The UN Fact-Finding Mission cautiously welcomed the amnesty but warned against proceeding without victim participation and independent oversight.
Why It Matters
Another postponement would be the third deferral and would shatter the Rodríguez government’s credibility on prisoner releases—a commitment made to Washington, which holds enormous leverage through sanctions and the Maduro operation precedent.
The hunger strikers’ deteriorating health adds moral urgency; a death outside a prison would transform the political calculus entirely. Passage with the court-appearance clause would satisfy the ruling party’s desire to control the narrative while still producing a legal framework for mass releases.
Key Watch
Amnesty vote outcome. Court-appearance clause retained or removed. Whether Venezuelans abroad qualify. Hunger strikers’ medical condition. U.S. State Department reaction. Election timeline signals.
RISK: HIGH
Peru
Balcázar Sworn In as Eighth President in a Decade After Congress Ousted Jerí Over Chifa-gate
What Happened
—New President: Congress elected José María Balcázar as interim president Wednesday night after a multi-round session. Balcázar, 83, a former judge from Perú Libre—the party of ousted president Pedro Castillo—defeated María del Carmen Alva and two others. He was immediately sworn in as head of Congress, automatically assuming the presidency.
—53-Day Mandate: Balcázar serves until July 28 when the April 12 election winner takes office. Teneo’s Nicolas Watson said another presidential change before July “would mark a new nadir in Peruvian politics” but could not be ruled out. Bloomberg described him as the fourth president in this presidential term, with all three predecessors forced out.
—Jerí Under Investigation: Prosecutors have opened two preliminary investigations into Jerí over influence-peddling and illegal sponsorship of private interests, stemming from the “Chifa-gate” meetings with Chinese businessman Zhihua Yang and separate allegations of hiring young women in public institutions after palace meetings. Jerí retains parliamentary immunity as a legislator.
Why It Matters
Peru’s “moral incapacity” mechanism has made the presidency disposable—three consecutive impeachments by the same Congress. Balcázar’s Perú Libre affiliation is sensitive because party founder Vladimir Cerrón remains a fugitive.
The economy stays resilient (32% debt-to-GDP, mining sector intact), but political instability prevents long-term infrastructure investment. The April 12 election, with 34 candidates, virtually guarantees a June runoff—Peru will not have a democratically elected president until late July.
Key Watch
Balcázar’s first acts and cabinet. Prosecutor’s next steps on Jerí. Caretaker vs. activist governance. López Aliaga and Fujimori polling. Market stability. China angle given Perú Libre’s ideology.
RISK: HIGH
Regional Snapshot
Brazil: Federal police on Monday raided properties of suspects allegedly involved in leaking confidential tax and financial data of Supreme Court justices and their families—a new scandal that landed as Brasília returned from Carnival. Separately, the opposition announced legal action against President Lula over a Carnival tribute, though the substance appears performative. The Ibovespa fell 0.24% to 186,016 in Wednesday’s abbreviated Ash Wednesday session (Wed), with energy shares buoyed by Iran tensions and Embraer up 2% on a Uruguayan Air Force delivery. The BCB Focus Report showed rate-cut expectations for March holding steady. The real is trading near R$5.22/dollar.
Mexico: President Sheinbaum met Tuesday with Canada’s intergovernmental affairs minister Dominic LeBlanc and agriculture minister Heath MacDonald, in talks focused on the USMCA review ahead of the summer deadline. The 40-hour workweek legislation continues advancing through committee. IPC slipped 0.38% to 70,885 (Wed). Measles outbreaks across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are raising health concerns months before the joint World Cup 2026 begins in June.
Guatemala: President Arévalo launched “Centinela Metropolitano,” a new security plan deploying joint military-police patrols to crime hotspots in Guatemala City, as the country’s state of siege was eased. Guatemala also announced the phaseout of its Cuban medical program—a significant geopolitical shift under U.S. pressure.
Paraguay: President Peña reshuffled his cabinet at the midway mark of his term, appointing industry and trade minister Javier Giménez García de Zuñiga as his new chief of staff—a bureaucratic move signaling consolidation rather than crisis.
Uruguay: President Orsi returned from an official trip to China with what officials described as strengthened bilateral ties. Orsi was treated for suspected chickenpox—later ruled out—on his return. The PIT-CNT labor federation warned that debate on the Mercosur–EU trade deal is moving forward without adequate sector-by-sector impact assessments.
Colombia: A pro-Trump Colombian lawmaker asked President Petro for help after ICE arrested her son in the United States—an ironic twist given the politician’s previous support for Trump’s immigration policies. Flooding continues in affected departments, though no major new developments this week.
Chile: President-elect Kast’s March inauguration preparations continue. The IPSA slipped 0.26% to 10,864.48 (Wed), with RSI at mid-range levels suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Markets at a Glance
Index
Close
Change
Context
Ibovespa (Wed)
186,016.31
−0.24%
Ash Wednesday half-session; energy up on Iran tensions, Embraer +2%
MERVAL (Wed)
2,723,175.02
−3.30%
Reopening selloff on strike risk and reform uncertainty
IPC (Wed)
70,885.22
−0.38%
Mild pullback; Sheinbaum–Canada trade talks
COLCAP (Wed)
2,366.46
+0.17%
Flat; no major catalyst
IPSA (Wed)
10,864.48
−0.26%
Quiet session; Kast transition steady
S&P 500 (Wed)
6,881.31
+0.56%
Tech rebound; FOMC minutes showed divided Fed on rate cuts
Source: TradingView (Tier 0) for Ibovespa, MERVAL, IPC, COLCAP, IPSA. CNBC for S&P 500. All data reflects Wednesday, February 18 closing sessions.
The Week Ahead
Date
Event
Thu Feb 19
Argentina: CGT general strike; Deputies vote on labor reform (2 PM local); Milei at Board of Peace summit in Washington • Venezuela: National Assembly resumes amnesty bill final vote • Peru: Balcázar’s first full day as president • Board of Peace inaugural summit, Washington D.C.
Fri Feb 20
Argentina: Post-strike damage assessment; Senate timeline for amended reform bill • All LatAm: Market reaction to Argentina vote and Fed minutes implications
Mon Feb 24
Cuba: Aeroflot last scheduled Cuba service • Argentina: Senate return session window opens for labor reform
Fri Feb 28
Argentina: Extraordinary sessions deadline—labor reform must pass Senate by this date
Mar 7–8
Argentina: Milei at “Argentina Week” investment fair + Trump’s Miami summit with aligned LatAm leaders
Mar 17–18
Brazil: BCB Copom rate decision—50bp cut to 14.50% expected
Apr 12
Peru: General election (first round)—34 candidates, runoff in June if no 50% majority
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