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Making sense of the markets this week: October 13, 2024


Canadian Natural Resources doubles down on Canada

For a decade now, big acquisitions by Canadian oil-and-gas producers have mostly been met with distaste by investors. So we’ll take it as a heartening sign how well the markets received Canadian Natural Resources’ (CNQ/TSX) decision to buy the Alberta upstream assets of Chevron Corp. (CVX/NYSE) for USD$6.5 billion in cash. CNQ stock rose 3.7% Monday in the wake of the announcement. Chevron was up 0.7% on a day when oil prices increased.

The assets in question comprise a 20% stake in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project, along with 70% of the Kaybob Duvernay shale play. That should add 122,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day to Canadian Natural Resource’s 2025 output, the company said. It also announced a 7% bump to its quarterly dividend, to 56.25 Canadian cents a share, beginning in January.

Chevron explained the asset sale in terms of freeing up cash for U.S. shale acquisitions as well as targeted positions abroad, such as in Kazakhstan, which it considers to hold better long-term profit potential.

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Nvidia moves up to number 2 in market cap

Reports of the death of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks’ decade-long run are greatly exaggerated, Nvidia (NVDA/Nasdaq) seemed to say this week as its shares rose past $130. (All figures in U.S. dollars.) That pushed its market capitalization ahead of Microsoft Corp. to $3.19 trillion. That leaves only Apple, with a market cap of $3.4 trillion, worth more than the AI-focused chip-maker.

Nvidia’s stock is up 26% in the past month, compared to a 6% advance for the S&P 500. Nvidia has grown tenfold in just two years. The price movement this week appeared to come from a positive report from Super Micro Computer, a provider of advanced server products and services. It found that sales of its liquid cooling products, deployed alongside Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs), would be even stronger than expected this quarter. Analyst estimates of Nvidia’s adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for the three-month period ended this month is $21.9 billion.

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Pepsi earnings leave a sour taste

Posting its second straight disappointing set of quarterly results on Tuesday, beverage-and-snack maker PepsiCo lowered its full-year guidance for organic revenue unrelated to acquisitions.

Results were hampered by recalls of the company’s Quaker Foods products, related to potential salmonella contamination. PepsiCo also experienced weak demand in the U.S. and business disruptions in some overseas markets, such as the Middle East. Pepsi’s North American beverage volumes fell 3% year-over-year, mostly due to declines in energy drink sales. Meanwhile, its Frito-Lay division suffered a 1.5% decline.

“After outperforming packaged food categories in previous years, salty and savory snacks have underperformed year-to-date,” executives said in a prepared statement. Overall, PepsiCo revised its 2024 sales growth outlook from the previous 4% to low single digits.



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