by Sharelle Burt
November 12, 2024
Will this change the process of future elections?
Billions of dollars were paid from people around the world on election betting sites, like Polymarket, hoping to cash in on the next U.S. PresidentNBC News reports.
Platforms like Polymarket, which are not open to betters from the U.S., saw more than $3.6 billion in bets on the 2024 presidential election, with $1.5 billion placed on now-President-elect Donald Trump and $1 billion on Vice President Kamala Harris. Bets came in for the outcomes of elections in swing states, racking up over $270 million on Polymarket and more than $120 million on fellow betting app, Kalshi, a legal betting platform.
Pennsylvania saw the highest betting volume, garnering $47 million on both platforms. Michigan and Georgia came in second place as the remaining states fell into the top 15 states with high trading volume. Bets on swing states on both Polymarket and Kalshi made up close to half of the total trading volume on state outcomes. Experts like economics professor at Dartmouth University, Eric Zitzewitz, aren’t surprised about the bets on swing states since voters see them as the most vital in the election. “There’s not that much interest in ‘Will the Republicans win Alabama?’ or ‘Will the Democrats win California?” he said.
“People are kind of interested in the states that are going to decide the election.”
According to Complex, a bet on Polymarket from a user named “Theo” waged more than $28 million on Trump, who secured the White House for a second term with 312 electoral votes over Harris’ 226. The results of the election helped the user walk away with close to $83.5 million in winnings, using 11 different accounts on different platforms.
Polymarket’s operations were paused in the states by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, CEO Shayne Coplan said plans to return have begun. However, skepticism has arised, thanks to “Theo.” A gambling regulator from France launched an investigation on Polymarket’s policies being in compliance with its rules.
Zitzewitz feels bets in the swing states provided an interesting perspective on the 2024 election cycle as incoming bets gave voters an early idea of which candidate was leading over traditional polls. “The people who are trading in the markets trying to make money have very strong incentives to be looking for the most up-to-date news so that they can get the jump on others and make some money that way,” Zitzewitz said.
“As a result, markets tend to move immediately as things are reported.”
People are taking a closer look at the election results while the four-time indicted businessman has begun to fulfill his cabinet with allies. Trump also secured the overall popular vote, unlike what he did in 2016 against former First lady Hilary Clinton, despite winning more electoral votes.
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