A new AtlasIntel poll published March 17 reveals right-wing candidates George Simion and Anamaria Gavrilă dominate Romania’s presidential race ahead of the May 2025 election.
Simion from the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (GOLD) leads with 30.4% support, while Gavrilă of the Party of Young People (POT) follows closely at 30.2%.
Romania’s Electoral Commission barred previous frontrunner Călin Georgescu from running on March 9. The Constitutional Court upheld this decision on March 11, citing alleged Russian interference in his campaign.
Georgescu had surprisingly won the first round of the November 2024 election before courts annulled those results.
Both Simion and Gavrilă registered their candidacies by the March 15 deadline. The two politicians promised that one would eventually withdraw to consolidate nationalist support. Poll data shows 79.3% of Georgescu’s previous voters now support Simion.
Institutional Coup Against Georgescu Fuels Anti-Eu Fire-George Simion. (Photo Internet Reproduction)
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Nicușor Dan, the centrist Mayor of Bucharest, currently polls at 26%. Projections suggest Dan could win in a second-round scenario against either right-wing candidate. The race will proceed in two rounds on May 4 and May 18.
Gavrilă, 41, founded POT in 2023 after leaving AUR. She has served in Romania’s Chamber of Deputies since 2020.
Her party aligns with nationalist movements that oppose military aid to Ukraine and favor stronger ties with Russia.
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Simion, 39, has positioned himself as Georgescu’s natural successor. His AUR party champions Romanian sovereignty and opposes what he calls the political “system.”
A January Sociopol poll showed he could capture approximately 35% without Georgescu running.
The rise of nationalist candidates challenges Romania’s traditional pro-European orientation. The AUR and POT parties express skepticism toward EU and NATO allegiances that have defined Romanian foreign policy since joining both organizations.
Romania’s political landscape dramatically shifted after the Constitutional Court annulled December’s election results.
The Court cited evidence from Romania’s National Security Council showing Russian influence operations and social media manipulation.
The controversial decision sparked protests, with many calling it a “coup d’état” against democracy.
The May election represents a pivotal moment for Romania’s democratic future and geopolitical positioning in Eastern Europe.
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