Moody’s vice president Jaime Reusche spoke at a Buenos Aires event, outlining Argentina’s credit outlook. He said Moody’s could gradually upgrade the sovereign rating if fiscal discipline and sustained disinflation persist.
He projected 30 percent inflation by year-end but said April and May readings could prompt a downward revision. He noted inflation fell to 118 percent in 2024 from 211 percent in 2023. He credited President Javier Milei’s spending cuts and monetary tightening for that decline.
The agency upgraded Argentina’s foreign-currency rating to Caa3 in January and set its outlook to positive. That rating still ranks near the bottom and signals very high credit risk. Moody’s forecasts 4 percent GDP growth in 2025, below the 5 percent market consensus.
The IMF provided US$20 billion under a fresh agreement, delaying any market return until after 2025. Meanwhile, Peru faces 10 percent US tariffs on 70 percent of its exports.
It also faces a 155 percent US levy on Chinese imports, threatening trade flows and commodity markets. Peru’s economy shrank 0.4 percent in 2023 then rebounded with 3.3 percent growth in 2024.
Moody’s Eyes Gradual Upgrade for Argentina’s Sovereign Rating. (Photo Internet reproduction)
Markets expect about 4 percent growth in 2025, placing Peru among the region’s fastest economies. China absorbs 30 percent of Peru’s exports and 70 percent of its copper shipments.
That reliance stems from a 2009 free trade agreement that boosted shipments from $5.5 billion to $23 billion. Analysts warn that China’s slowing growth will compound Peru’s trade risks.
Both Argentina and Peru now face key tests as they navigate global pressures. Their success will hinge on sustainable reforms and market access.
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