Why Arthur Hayes is bullish: In an interview with CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie on MArkets Outlook, Hayes said Hyperliquid has separated itself from competing perpetual futures exchanges with real usage rather than incentive-driven volume.
Hayes told Sanasie he sold his firm’s HYPE position around $50–$55 ahead of expected token unlock pressure but turned bullish again after the team chose not to sell most of its monthly token allocations.He said Hyperliquid still generates close to a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate based on 30-day fee data.The platform’s HIP-3 permissionless listing system has expanded trading beyond crypto into assets like oil or equity indices.
What’s driving activity: Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets unavailable through traditional platforms.
Retail traders can trade assets like oil or Nasdaq proxies 24/7 on-chain using stablecoins and crypto wallets.Hayes said leverage of 10x–20x is often available compared with the 2x–3x many retail investors receive on traditional brokerage platforms.Weekend geopolitical events, such as sudden conflict announcements, have pushed traders to use Hyperliquid while traditional markets are closed.
Why Hyperliquid stands out: Hayes argued Hyperliquid’s liquidity and trading metrics show more genuine market activity than rival decentralized exchanges.
Many competing platforms rely on wash trading or token incentive programs to inflate activity, Hayes said.He evaluates exchanges using the ratio of trading volume to open interest, which he said helps identify genuine trading demand.Hayes said Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among major perpetual DEXs, indicating more “real” trading.The platform also offers the lowest slippage for large bitcoin perpetual trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, he said.
What could derail the thesis: Hayes said rising hype and stronger competition could signal a potential exit point.
He said he would reconsider his position if HYPE’s price-to-earnings ratio rises sharply and market sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bullish.Another risk is whether competitors offering lower fees can erode Hyperliquid’s roughly 70% share of perpetual DEX revenue.Hayes said maintaining strong revenue and continued restraint in team token selling are key to sustaining the bull case.
Beyond HYPE: Hayes also highlighted privacy-focused crypto projects as a developing narrative.
He said Zcash could benefit from growing concerns about blockchain surveillance and AI-powered transaction analysis.Hayes cited Zcash’s cryptographic upgrades and privacy model as reasons he favors it over alternatives like Monero.
Bitcoin outlook: Hayes maintained his aggressive forecast for Bitcoin.
He reiterated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year despite missing earlier targets.
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