Boeing has publicly forecasted ongoing supply problems for commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, marking a shift in expectations for the global aviation sector.
The company, ahead of the Paris Air Show, now predicts the world will need 43,600 new aircraft through 2044, a slight drop from its previous estimate of 43,975.
This adjustment reflects persistent supply chain issues that have outlasted the pandemic and continue to affect the entire industry.
The numbers highlight a significant gap between demand and production.
Boeing estimates a current shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 jets, a deficit that has grown as airlines have quickly recovered from the pandemic but manufacturers have not matched the pace.
The company expects that only by the end of this decade will aircraft production rates start to meet the market’s needs.
Boeing Warns of Two Decades of Aircraft Supply Strains as Global Demand Surges
Most of the new demand will come from Asia, particularly China and Southeast Asia, which will account for half of the new capacity required.
The rest will be driven by replacing older planes, mainly in North America and Eurasia. Boeing projects that single-aisle jets, such as the 737 MAX, will make up about 80 percent of all new deliveries.
Boeing Warns of Two Decades of Aircraft Supply Strains as Global Demand Surges
Supply chain disruptions have hit the industry hard. Boeing’s 737 Max production milestone, for example, has been delayed by six months, pushing the target of 42 jets per month from September 2024 to March 2025.
This delay has forced suppliers to scale back their own production, causing financial strain and operational headaches across the supply chain.
The Federal Aviation Administration currently caps Boeing’s 737 Max production at 38 jets per month, but the company is producing even fewer as it works through regulatory and safety challenges.
Suppliers, many of which rely heavily on Boeing, have had to adjust output and manage excess inventory, leading to revenue losses and uncertainty.
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The global fleet will nearly double by 2044, reaching just under 50,000 planes. Emerging markets will represent over half of the fleet, up from nearly 40 percent in 2024.
The top 10 airlines now control only 30 percent of the market, down from 45 percent in 2004, reflecting the rise of carriers in Asia and the Middle East.
Boeing’s forecast signals that supply chain recovery will take years, not months.
For businesses and investors, the message is clear: the aviation industry’s growth will depend as much on fixing supply bottlenecks as on rising passenger demand.
This reality will shape investment, employment, and competition in aviation for years to come.
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