Brazil’s mid-May inflation reading of 0.36% marked the third consecutive monthly slowdown, falling below market expectations of 0.44% and fueling speculation that the Central Bank may halt its aggressive rate-hike cycle.
The IPCA-15 index, a key inflation gauge, showed annualized inflation at 5.40%—still far above the government’s 4.5% upper target limit but down from 5.49% in April.
Fresh food prices dropped 1.2% monthly due to improved supply chains, while industrial goods rose 0.5% amid retail promotions. Services inflation eased marginally but remained elevated at 6.6% year-over-year, driven by labor-intensive sectors like healthcare and education.
The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) has raised the benchmark Selic rate six times since September 2024, reaching 14.75% in May—the highest since 2006.
Economists remain split on whether June’s meeting will bring a pause or a final 0.25-point hike to 15%. Analysts at ASA Investimentos and G5 Partners argue the inflation deceleration justifies stabilizing rates, with market derivatives pricing a 76% chance of no change.
Brazil’s Inflation Slowdown Sparks Debate Over Prolonged High Interest Rates. (Photo Internet reproduction)
Critics like C6 Bank’s Claudia Moreno warn persistent service-sector pressures and a weak exchange rate (BRL 5.86/USD) necessitate further tightening. Domestic challenges complicate the outlook.
Brazil’s Balancing Act
GDP growth is projected at 2% for 2025, down from 3% last year, as high borrowing costs strain consumers. Fiscal policy risks linger, with public debt at 80% of GDP and new stimulus measures under debate.
Global commodity price declines offer short-term relief, but a tight labor market and currency volatility threaten to reignite inflation.
Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto has emphasized that core metrics, including services and industrial goods, remain incompatible with the 3% target.
The May data provides a reprieve but no resolution. For businesses, the stalemate means prolonged credit constraints and cautious investment.
Economists at Suno Research note that future decisions hinge on June’s activity data and unemployment figures, which could signal whether Brazil’s economy is cooling fast enough to justify rate cuts by late 2025.
Until then, the Selic’s 14.75% floor—a 19-year high—will test policymakers’ balance between curbing prices and avoiding recession.
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