A storm system that meteorologists previously believed had a minimal chance of developing into a tropical system may become the next named storm, Nadine, in coming days.
The National Hurricane Center confirmed in a public advisory on Tuesday, Oct. 15, that it is monitoring an area of low pressure known as Invest 94, which could develop into a storm “by the middle to latter part of this week.”
The forecast was a change from last week. On Wednesday, Oct. 9 — the day Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida — the NHC issued a public advisory that indicated that the chances of a storm forming in the Atlantic “in the coming days” was “not likely.”
Experts now believe that a tropical system could develop as early as the middle of this week, though the chance of it developing over the next seven days has increased.
The NHC says there is about a 50% chance that a tropical depression will develop within the next seven days, compared to a 30% chance over the next 48 hours. (The agency previously gave the storm a 30% chance of forming over the last week.)
The system is currently moving west-northwestward, and is expected to approach the Leeward Islands later this week.
Danielle Banks, a meteorologist with The Weather Channelsaid experts initially believed the system “looked like it would be short-lived and start to fizzle” out.
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Now, the system appears to have a higher chance of “getting more organized” as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles, and may soon earn the name Nadine.
Storms are named once their maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 mph, which classifies a system as a tropical storm. A storm reaches hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scales once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph.
But as Banks noted, the storm system churning over the Atlantic still has to overcome wind shear that could cause it to weaken as it approaches the Caribbean.
Additionally, current models do not project the storm will approach Florida, contrary to some of the false claims made online in the last week.
Satellite imagery from Hurricane Helene from Sept. 26, 2024.
Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024
Many of the images circulated on social media featured what users purported to be the predicted track for the non-existent hurricane, but were actually old computer models from past storms.
PolitiFact confirmed one of the viral images posted to Threads was not of Nadine’s predicted path, but was in fact “an image of Hurricane Helene’s projected trajectory” from late September. First Coast News in Florida debunked the same graphic.
A second, “broad area of low pressure” is currently sitting over the western portion of the Caribbean, as well, according to the NHC’s latest public advisory.
“Some gradual development is possible if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward towards Central America,” the agency said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.”
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