The Ibovespa index began 2025 on a negative note, reflecting ongoing uncertainties from the previous year. This decline was influenced by low liquidity and a downturn in Wall Street, which weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
On January 2, the primary index of the Brazilian stock market closed down by 0.13%, settling at 120,125.39 points. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, ended trading at R$ 6.1625, down by 0.29%.
Domestically, concerns regarding public finances and the trajectory of national debt continued to affect investor confidence. The new president of Brazil’s Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, remained a focal point for market participants.
He expressed a strong commitment to the Central Bank’s guidance, indicating that there is a “high bar” for any deviation from the monetary authority’s signals.
As the trading session progressed, traders assigned a 28% chance that the Central Bank would adhere to its guidance and raise interest rates by one percentage point in its upcoming meeting.
Ibovespa Opens 2025 Down Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainties. (Photo Internet reproduction)
In contrast, there was a 72% probability of a more significant increase of 1.25 percentage points. Recent sessions had seen expectations split between potential hikes of 1.25 and 1.5 percentage points, indicating a consensus that a more substantial adjustment was likely.
Key Players and Market Reactions
Within the B3 exchange, certain stocks exhibited notable movements. Aeris (AERI3) surged over 32% amid speculation regarding the sale of its stake to Chinese firm Sinoma Blade, which is expected to provide an update by January 4.
Gol (GOLL4) also saw significant gains following an agreement concerning its debt obligations. On the positive side of the Ibovespa, CVC (CVCB3) led gains as easing interest rates provided relief.
Conversely, Eneva (ENEV3) experienced downward pressure due to new regulations from Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy. The regulations were related to capacity auctions for thermal and hydroelectric plants.
Among major players, Vale (VALE3) experienced losses due to weak iron ore prices. However, these losses were partially offset by news that the National Agency for Land Transport (ANTT) and the federal government were establishing new terms for railway concessions.
Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) rose over 2% due to favorable oil market conditions. The increase also came from the confirmation of an agreement with Prio (PRIO3) to utilize natural gas infrastructure.
In the United States, investors reacted to economic data as they started the year. Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to reach 211,000 for the week ending December 28, better than economists’ expectations of 222,000 claims.
Additionally, market participants were positioning themselves ahead of Donald Trump’s administration. Fears of escalating trade wars due to proposed tariffs drove this.
The expectation remains that interest rates in the U.S. will stay elevated for an extended period. During its last meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated only two potential rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each throughout 2025.
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