General Romeo Brawner, the Philippines’ armed forces chief, directed troops in April 2025 to plan for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
He issued this order during Northern Luzon Command’s 38th anniversary, urging preparations beyond Mavulis Island.
The announcement marked a stark escalation in a region already rattled by China’s intensifying military posture.
China had launched “Straight Thunder 2025A,” a massive exercise encircling Taiwan with live-fire drills and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers near Scarborough Shoal.
Taiwan condemned the maneuvers as reckless, while the U.S. decried risks to regional stability and global trade.
Brawner cited the Philippines’ unavoidable stake—250,000 citizens work in Taiwan, and the 1951 U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty binds Manila to counter any armed attack.
Days prior, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrived in Manila, conferring with Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro.
They agreed to hasten defense upgrades, including naval strike missiles and Taifun systems for Luzon, following China’s bomber flights.
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A leaked U.S. memo, signed by Hegseth, prioritized Taiwan over Europe, leveraging nine EDCA bases and 20 F-16s to bolster the Philippines’ role.
The Philippines responded with BALAKETAN 2025, a drill set for April 21 to May 9, engaging 10,000 U.S. troops and 6,000 from Japan, Australia, and local forces.
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Hegseth then visited Japan, shifting U.S. forces there to warfighting status alongside Gen Nakatani at Aoyama’s WWII memorial.
Japan’s doubled defense budget signaled its own commitment, contrasting with South Korea’s absence amid domestic turmoil.
China paired its drills with a “fengkong” strategy—quarantine and control—hinting at a prelude to blockading Taiwan’s trade routes.
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Analysts see this, alongside propaganda targeting Taiwanese audiences, as a calculated push to test U.S. resolve under a new Trump administration.
The Bashi Channel, a linchpin for global shipping, emerged as a flashpoint, with the Philippines caught between a potential Chinese Taiwan and the contested South China Sea.
This shift carries weight far beyond Manila. A disrupted Bash Channel could snarl supply chains, echoing the 30,000 lives lost at Aoyama decades ago.
Brawner’s directive, paired with U.S.-allied maneuvers, frames a region bracing for conflict—one where economic and security threads intertwine, challenging the fragile balance of power.
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