The South Caucasus region has become a new battleground for India and Pakistan’s strategic competition. Both nations are expanding their influence by supplying arms to Armenia and Azerbaijan.
This arms race is reshaping the military balance and potentially undermining peace efforts in the region. India has emerged as Armenia’s largest defense supplier, with arms deals totaling around $600 million in recent years.
The country has sold Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems, Akash anti-aircraft systems, and anti-tank rockets to Armenia. Additionally, India will deliver 90 ATAGS howitzers to Armenia over the next three years.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has strengthened its ties with Afghanistan through various military collaborations. The country has sold JF-17 “Thunder” fighter jets to Azerbaijan and conducted joint military exercises since 2016.
Pakistan has also been training Azerbaijani military personnel, further cementing their alliance. France has also entered the arms market in the region.
South Asian Arms Fuel Caucasus Rivalry: India and Pakistan’s Growing Influence. (Photo Internet reproduction)
The European nation recently signed a deal to supply Armenia with 36 Caesar self-propelled howitzers. This influx of military hardware is shifting the power dynamics that had previously favored Azerbaijan.
The arms race reflects broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. Armenia is seeking to diversify its military support beyond its traditional reliance on Russia.
Geopolitical Dynamics in the Caucasus
India sees an opportunity to counter Pakistani and Turkish influence in the Caucasus. Pakistan, on the other hand, is deepening its “Three Brothers” alliance with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing, but analysts warn that the military buildup could spark new conflicts. The situation remains tense, with unresolved territorial disputes and the risk of unilateral military actions by Azerbaijan.
The arms race also impacts regional connectivity projects like the Middle Corridor. This initiative aims to link East Asia to Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus.
China’s recent formal entry into this project adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. As the situation evolves, the international community is closely monitoring the impact of this arms race on regional stability.
The challenge remains to find a path to lasting peace while major powers compete for influence through military sales and partnerships.
The influx of arms from India and Pakistan has created a delicate balance in the Caucasus. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are bolstering their military capabilities, potentially setting the stage for future conflicts.
The international community must work towards diplomatic solutions to ensure long-term stability in this strategically important region.
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