(Analysis) As military dissent and economic failures pile up in China, analysts question whether Xi still commands the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and whether both the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can coexist—or if one must fall.
A senior Chinese general’s disappearance in March 2025 lays bare Xi Jinping’s crumbling control, thrusting China into an existential showdown with the United States.
Far beyond a trade war, this clash fuses economic might, geopolitical dominance, and national security, with Xi’s centralized power now his greatest weakness.
Xi’s rise to absolute power began in 2012 as CCP General Secretary, when he inherited a system balancing decisions across the Politburo. He dismantled this, purging over 1.3 million officials by 2016 through an anti-corruption campaign that targeted rivals.
Declared the Party’s “core” in 2016, Xi embedded his political doctrine in the CCP constitution by 2017, a status rivaling Mao Zedong’s. His 2022 third term, breaking decades of precedent, filled top posts with loyalists.
As PLA commander-in-chief, Xi reorganized military structures to ensure allegiance. This consolidation eliminated shared accountability, leaving Xi solely responsible for China’s triumphs—and its mounting crises.
Xi’s Unraveling Authority Ignites a U.S.-China Fight for Survival – General He Weidong. (Photo Internet reproduction)
Economic Woes Pin Failures on Xi’s Rigid Rule
In 2025, those crises overwhelm. Despite a $295.4 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024, China’s economy reels from a collapsed property sector, deflation, and 15.3% youth unemployment.
The chaotic 2022 end of the “Zero Covid” policy sparked economic turmoil, while crackdowns on private firms crushed innovation. Local government debt reached $13 trillion in 2024, and exports waned under U.S. tariffs.
A projected 5% growth for 2025 is doubted, as analysts note Xi’s focus on control stifles adaptability. Public frustration grows, pinning these failures directly on Xi’s rigid leadership.
Military unrest deepens the cracks. The disappearance of General He Weidong, a Xi ally, since March 2025 follows the removal of a senior admiral in November 2024 and nine Rocket Force generals in December 2023.
Since July 2023, the PLA’s main publication has pushed “collective leadership,” a subtle jab at Xi’s dominance. These purges, hitting even loyalists, point to factionalism, with reports suggesting Xi’s rivals may orchestrate removals to undermine him.
Analysts argue Xi’s control over the PLA is fraying, as internal discord hampers military readiness and delays modernization goals, weakening China’s global stance.
U.S. Tariffs Exploit China’s Existential Weakness
The U.S. seizes this vulnerability, wielding its 30% share of global consumer spending to reshape trade. Tariffs, peaking at 245% on Chinese electric vehicles, target China’s surplus and transshipment through Vietnam.
Over 130 countries, including Japan, negotiate U.S. market access, sidelining China. Xi’s 125% retaliatory tariffs and rare earth export restrictions aim to strike back, but his refusal to negotiate reflects domestic pressures—yielding would signal defeat.
Security concerns, like Chinese drones over U.S. bases and a California lab linked to biosecurity risks, heighten fears, casting the clash as a battle for survival.
China’s Trade War Gamble: Factories Shutter, Allies Turn, and Propaganda Intensifies
Can Both Survive or Must One Fall?
This struggle’s existential core lies in the CCP’s view of U.S. democracy as a lethal threat. A 2019 CCP editorial declared a “People’s War” against the U.S., echoing Xi’s 2012 stance that Western systems are incompatible with China’s model.
The CCP’s legitimacy depends on quashing dissent, but Xi’s economic and military setbacks erode this foundation. For the U.S., losing risks economic dependency, with 2.5 million jobs lost since China’s 2001 WTO entry.
The U.S. aims to revive industries, breaking China’s hold on supply chains. Xi’s centralization, intended to cement his rule, has tethered him to China’s failures, fostering factionalism that may cost him PLA control.
The U.S.’s tariff strategy exploits these weaknesses, but success hinges on allied unity and economic resilience. Xi’s zero-sum ideology suggests only one can endure, as the CCP fears U.S. values sparking reform.
Yet, mutual economic ties—China’s need for U.S. markets and U.S. firms’ reliance on Chinese inputs—point to a possible stalemate. Europe’s indecision, leaning toward China while Japan aligns with the U.S., muddies coalition efforts.
Trump faces domestic pressure, with 75% of Americans expecting tariff-driven price hikes in 2025. Xi risks elite dissent, with purges revealing his fear of betrayal.
Neither may fall soon, but Xi’s unraveling authority tilts the balance toward U.S. leverage, if it navigates challenges adeptly.
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