Emerging market currencies marked their sixth consecutive week of gains, fueled by a retreating US dollar and shifting capital flows amid renewed trade policy risks.
The Bloomberg EM Currency Index rose 1.3% year-to-date, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index climbed 1.7% in early 2025, outperforming developed markets for the first time in years.
Brazil’s real led Latin American gains, surging 1.1% on Friday alone and 8.5% against the dollar this year, after the government reversed a proposed tax on foreign transfers.
The Colombian, Mexican, and Chilean pesos track closely behind Brazil’s real, posting gains of 5% and more against the dollar in early 2025.
Analysts attribute the Brazilian lead to the country’s 14.75% benchmark interest rate, which widened the yield gap with US Treasuries and attracted carry traders.
South Africa’s rand extended its rally to six weeks, reaching a 2025 high as fiscal reforms stabilized investor sentiment.
Yield Hunters Propel EM Currencies to Sixth Straight Weekly Win Against Weakening Dollar
The dollar fell to a two-year low after former US President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs on EU imports and 25% levies on iPhones not made domestically.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged trade policy risks in a May 7 speech, noting “elevated uncertainty” dampening US growth projections.
Yield Hunters Propel EM Currencies to Sixth Straight Weekly Win Against Weakening Dollar
Investors redirected $9.25 billion into Indonesian bonds and $3.36 trillion into MSCI EM equities, seeking refuge in higher-yielding assets.
Emerging market local currency debt returned 4.25% year-to-date, with currency appreciation contributing 2.22% of gains.
Brazil and Indonesia benefited most, while Turkey and Hungary faced currency depreciation despite bond rallies.
The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts further eroded the dollar’s appeal, mirroring 2017 patterns when EM assets last outperformed during trade disputes.
Commodity-linked currencies gained support from elevated gold and oil prices, though industrial metal volatility persisted.
Malaysia and Thailand revised 2025 growth forecasts downward amid tariff disruptions, highlighting regional vulnerabilities.
Ukraine’s dollar bonds stabilized as US-Russia negotiations stalled, while Surinam prepared for elections tied to its oil-driven debt restructuring.
Market optimism remains fragile. Trump’s tariff threats echo 2018 patterns that erased $1.7 trillion from EM valuations.
Analysts warn the rally hinges on sustained dollar softness and controlled US inflation. Investors await clarity from Powell’s upcoming remarks and potential Fed policy shifts, with emerging markets positioned to capitalize on receding global trade integration.
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