Analytical firm Counterpoint Research has taken a machete to its 2025 forecasts and now expects global smartphone sales to rise only 1.9% year-over-year compared to its original estimate which called for a 4.2% increase in smartphone sales this year. This amounts to a 55% reduction which Counterpoint is blaming on “renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.”Counterpoint now expects phone sales in North America to decline 3% in 2025 on an annualized basis. The firm says that it expects higher prices for smartphones due to President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. While the tariff rates for individual countries are not as bad as some of the rates initially announced by the president, Counterpoint says that Apple and Samsung will pass to consumers the extra costs of the tariffs that they have to pay on their products imported into the United States.
The tariffs imposed by President Trump are income taxes that U.S. companies pay for products they import into the States. American firms have the choice to pay the tariff, pass the tariff onto consumers in the form of higher prices, or pay some of the tax and have consumers pay the balance. With Counterpoint expecting Apple and Samsung to raise the prices of their new phones to reduce their burden from the tariffs, consumers in the U.S. might have to shell out more money if they feel compelled to buy a new handset later this year.
North American phone sales are forecast to decline 3% in 2025 due to higher prices from Trump’s tariffs. | Image credit-Counterpoint Research
Counterpoint sees smartphone sales rising in most markets during 2025. The world’s largest smartphone market, China, is forecast to show flat sales in 2025 despite a government subsidy program. The third-largest smartphone market in the world, North America, is expected to show a decline in phone sales this year because of tariff-related price increases. The two markets affected the most by Trump’s tariffs are North America and China. Both are impacted in different ways and both will have disappointing smartphone sales to report this year according to Counterpoint. The latter sees rising smartphone sales in most other markets during 2025.
Huawei is expected to show the highest growth in sales of any smartphone manufacturer in 2025. | Image credit-Counterpoint Research
Speaking of Huawei, Counterpoint says that it will have the highest growth rate in smartphone sales for 2025 at 11%. Motorola and Xiaomi are next, both estimated to grow smartphone sales by 4% this year. Apple and realme follow with the pair predicted to show 3% growth in smartphone sales for 2025.
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