Key Points
Europe’s disinflation deepened (Germany CPI 1.8% y/y; HICP 2.0%) while services cooled but stayed in expansion.
U.S. demand held up (services PMI 52.5; vehicle sales 16.0M) and oil stocks fell, easing energy risk.
Asia remained the ballast: India’s PMIs stayed hot; Australia’s approvals jumped; Korea’s CPI 2.3% y/y.
United States
Services stayed in expansion (S&P Global services 52.5; composite 52.7). Holiday spending eased but remained firm (Redbook 7.1% y/y).
Auto strength persisted: 16.00M total sales (cars 2.77M; trucks 13.25M). API reported a 2.8M-barrel crude draw, with rigs a day earlier edging higher, keeping supply balanced.
Translation: goods are mixed, but consumers and autos keep growth alive; near-term energy pressure is contained.
Europe and UK
Germany’s inflation cooled to 1.8% y/y (HICP 2.0%) with flat m/m prints; regional Land CPIs also eased.
Services momentum moderated across the bloc (eurozone services 52.4; composite 51.5), with Germany 52.7/51.3 and France 50.1/50.0.
Spain outperformed (services 57.1) while Italy slowed (services 51.5; composite 50.3).
Global Economy Briefing: January 6, 2026
French headline and HICP rose 0.1% m/m but slipped to 0.8%/0.7% y/y. Funding stayed orderly (German 2-yr Schatz 2.110%).
Demand signals were mixed: Spain retail +6.0% y/y and a €7.18B current-account surplus; UK services 51.4 with mortgage approvals 64.53k and net lending to individuals £6.6B.
UK new car registrations rose 3.9% y/y to 146,249, while France/Italy posted December declines/improvements, respectively.
Latin America and Africa
Brazil re-accelerated on services (PMI 53.7; composite 52.1) with inflation contained (IPC-Fipe 0.32% m/m).
The trade surplus widened to $9.63B, offsetting weaker prior months. FX detail will matter after recent outflows.
Mexico’s consumer confidence ticked up (44.7 n.s.a. 44.8), signaling steady private demand into Q1.
South Africa’s private-sector PMI fell to 47.7, underscoring a two-speed economy.
Asia-Pacific
India cooled a notch but stayed strong (services 58.0; composite 57.8). Australia printed a housing upswing: building approvals +15.2% m/m (+20.2% y/y) with trimmed-mean inflation steady at 3.2% y/y and weighted-mean 3.4% y/y—policy can stay patient.
Korea’s CPI ran 2.3% y/y (0.3% m/m). Canada’s services improved to 46.5 (from 44.3) and reserves were stable (C$127.8B). New Zealand’s dairy auction jumped 6.3%, a tailwind for farm incomes.
Positioning & flows
Speculative risk trimmed in cyclicals: copper length eased (59.8k), gold length dipped (231.2k), tech index length fell (Nasdaq 25.1k).
GBP shorts covered (−33.2k), JPY longs increased (14.1k), while EUR longs were little changed (157.5k). MXN longs rose (106.4k); BRL longs fell (42.1k).
What it means
Europe’s lower inflation plus solid external balances reduce global price risk even as services cool. U.S. consumers and autos keep the soft-landing path intact, aided by a crude draw.
Asia supplies steady demand without re-inflation, and Australia’s approvals hint at a brighter housing impulse.
Practical tilt: keep a quality-duration bias; overweight U.S. services and autos; add selectively to euro exporters that buy dollar-priced inputs.
Prefer MXN over BRL until Brazil’s flow picture stabilizes; in Asia, favor India and Australia consumer/housing linkages over deep cyclicals.
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