Several high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs) are scheduled for 2026, but none is bigger than SpaceX. On June 12, it plans to raise $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest IPO in history.
It’s easy to get swept up in the hype behind the SpaceX IPO. We’re talking about a space company founded by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, after all. Let’s say you decide to make a sizable investment and buy $25,000 worth of shares in this space stock right away. How much could that be worth in 2030?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The numbers behind SpaceX
As a whole, SpaceX is a growing but not yet profitable company. Revenue has steadily increased over the past three years, totaling $10.4 billion in 2023, $14 billion in 2024, and $18.7 billion in 2025. The space company also reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025.
However, the financial results vary significantly across SpaceX’s three business segments. The most successful, by far, is Connectivity, which includes its Starlink satellite internet service. This segment generated $11.4 billion in sales in 2025 and $4.4 billion in operating income, making it the only segment in the black.
Its Space segment reported $4.1 billion in revenue and an operating loss of $657 million. Its AI segment, which includes xAI, is a money pit so far, with 2025 revenue of $3.2 billion and an operating loss of $6.4 billion.
Considering SpaceX lost money last year and had $18.7 billion in sales, a $1.77 trillion market cap seems extremely high. That’s about 95 times its 2025 sales. That’s even higher than Palantir Technologies, one of the most expensive megacap stocks, which trades at 78 times sales.
To give credit where it’s due, Starlink has been a winner for SpaceX. Connectivity revenue increased 49.8% year over year in 2025. Although Space may not be profitable, it’s an area where SpaceX dominates the competition. It conducted 161 launches in 2025, according to recent research by The Motley Fool. All other U.S. commercial space companies conducted 37.
What will happen with SpaceX stock?
The optimistic scenario for SpaceX is that Starlink keeps growing, launches become profitable, AI at least starts moving closer to profitability, and the stock maintains a premium valuation. If the stars align for SpaceX, it may deliver returns of 25% to 30% annually. In four years, by June 2030, its market cap could reach $5 trillion.
But the more likely scenario is that SpaceX either delivers modest returns or even loses money, which wouldn’t be outlandish. Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion, well below its expected market cap. Here are a few models of what SpaceX and a $25,000 investment in it could be worth in 2030.
Annual ReturnValue of $25,000 InvestmentEstimated Market Cap30%$71,403$5.1 trillion5%$30,388$2.2 trillion(20%)$10,240$720 billion
Source: Author calculations
To me, this scenario demonstrates the main problem of investing in the SpaceX IPO. The valuation is already so high that the returns probably won’t be life-changing, even in a very optimistic scenario.
SpaceX stock will also probably be volatile, especially in the early going. If you were thinking of investing a large lump sum, like $25,000, consider spreading out your purchases instead to reduce your risk if there’s a pullback.
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